For general elections, the northern midwest is still solidly blue current status and rate of change aren't the same thing if you have a number -- let's say 5 -- and it's decreasing by 05 every year, it's going to stay positive 10 years. According to the fix's electoral vote tracker — an amazing tool that marries real clear politics polling averages in swing states with the electoral map — if the election were held today. The 2012 electoral map the latino eligible voting population is projected to increase from 31 percent to 45 percent between 2012 and 2016, while the black population moves from 22 percent. The presidential estimates are based on the current snapshot in the right sidebar, except for the most-probable-single-outcome map, where variance minimization was done to give a more stable snapshot for north carolina, clinton +10 ± 10% (n=8 polls. Final projection: since december, our model has taken in all published constituency-level polls, uk-wide polls and polling conducted in the nations, and projected the result in each of the 650.
Other cartographic products digital polling division and federal electoral district boundary files in vector format (esri shapefile, kml, gml) are available for download on the open government portal. Crystal ball 2016 electoral college ratings this was the final projection for the 2016 election from larry sabato and the team at the university of virginia center for politicsuse this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast. The politicus presidential projection map for november 3, 2016 and current polls they are subject to change and will be updated daily through election day electoral college map.
Based on the current polling, trump is winning in arizona, colorado, florida, georgia, iowa, nevada, north carolina, pennsylvania, and ohio for an additional 132 electoral votes clinton, on the other hand, is winning in maine, michigan, new hampshire, virginia, and wisconsin, giving her 46 more electoral votes. Obama 278, mccain 132, toss ups 128 | no toss ups: obama 338, mccain 200 solid obama leaning obama solid mccain leaning mccain toss up (click header to sort. The first map is sabato’s crystal ball—from the university of virginia the crystal ball calls the election for hillary at this point, with 293 electoral votes (a candidate only needs 270 to win) hillary clinton has picked an awful time to hit one of the rough patches that has plagued her throughout the campaign. The path to 270 is tougher for trump, who is projected to be able to count on 144 electoral college votes in 18 solidly republican states and 46 in right-leaning states like georgia, alaska, and. In the end sabato's map awarded clinton a projected 341 electoral votes, far surpassing the 270 that are needed to be elected president barack obama was elected with 365 electoral votes in 2008.
When hillary clinton was leading donald trump by 7 or 8 percentage points nationally, her electoral college map seemed expansive states like virginia and colorado were out of trump’s reach. The cook political report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the us house of representatives, us senate, governors and president as well as american political trends. Welcome to election projection since late 2003, election projection has been in the business of projecting the upcoming elections here you’ll find data-driven calculations that gauge the status of all senate , house and gubernatorial elections on tap for 2018. Nate silver’s fivethirtyeight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle.
According to the most recent electoral college map projection hillary clinton has 294 votes, more than enough to win in 2016 the 2016 presidential election campaign is now in full swing with most. The final day of the presidential campaign is here, and the politicus presidential projection map contains more clarity as election day awaits. It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2020 presidential election click states on this interactive map to create your own 2020 election forecast create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter.
Summary our current prediction is that there will be a majority for the conservatives, who will have 366 seats the sidebar at the right includes predicted probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 95% uncertainty intervals. Polling from early may was used to create these maps to see the latest polls visit our polling page current national and battleground state polls have mr trump trailing mrs clinton by about 10. This book contains maps that illustrate the electoral boundaries defined by the representation commission please see schedule e of the report of the representation commission 2014 for authoritative plans that accurately define the boundaries as required by the electoral act 1993.
Donald trump is in his weakest political position of the entire presidential campaign. The upi poll shows that if the elections were held last weekend, the electoral map would look like this 5 days from now: [insert upi] with clinton winning 341 electoral votes to trump’s 197. Updated 11/17/16, 9:30 am et – here is the 2016 presidential election electoral vote map and state-by-state projections, as well as the actual results map a table is below the maps with links to general election polls for each state you can see national polls on the “trump vs clinton” race here. Track the 2018 senate election with a red/blue map of the us updated daily using the latest state polls.
Election graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate electoral college results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races like election graphs on facebook, follow @electiongraphs on twitter, or read the election 2016 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data. Maps showing the proposed boundaries and names of the electorates will be current and projected electoral enrolment statistics redistribution 2007 page 6 act electoral commission 2 the populations of all act slas were projected by age and sex and constrained to the total at 1 3 actual enrolments as at 18 august 2006 were used to. What the latest polls and electoral maps are telling us election day is two days away hillary clinton and donald trump will be barnstorming through a bunch of states, trying to get voters out in the last hours to vote for them and then on tuesday the.